Politics Published: Oct 13, 2015 - 8:56:46 AM


QU Poll: Trump on top, Clinton drops in CT primaries, Biden top vote-getter in general election

By Quinnipiac University Poll





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Donald Trump tops the pack today in a Republican presidential primary in Connecticut with 34 percent, his highest score in any Quinnipiac University state poll so far, but he trails leading Democratic contenders in general election matchups.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nomination with 37 percent, down from 53 percent in a March 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 25 percent, with 18 percent for Vice President Joseph Biden and 12 percent undecided.

Clinton tops the “no way” list as 16 percent of Democrats say they would “definitely not” vote for her.

Dr. Ben Carson gets 14 percent of Republican primary votes in Connecticut, with 11 percent for Carly Fiorina, 7 percent for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 6 percent each for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. No other candidate tops 4 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Trump tops the GOP “no way” list as 25 percent say they would “definitely not” vote for him, followed by Bush with 22 percent who would not support him.

“Connecticut Republicans apparently want an outsider, as Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina lead the field and get a combined total of 59 percent of the Republican primary vote. Establishment candidates such as Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio are in single digits,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

“Secretary Hillary Clinton does especially well among Democratic women, ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders by about 2-1.  Sanders leads Clinton slightly among very liberal Democrats.”

Vice President Biden runs best against top Republican contenders in general election matchups in Connecticut:
51 – 39 percent over Carson;
53 – 36 percent over Fiorina:
55 – 37 percent over Trump.
Clinton gets 44 percent to Carson’s 42 percent. She leads Fiorina 45 – 40 percent and tops Trump 47 – 40 percent.
Sanders gets 44 percent to Carson’s 41 percent. He leads Fiorina 44 – 39 percent and beats Trump 49 – 40 percent.
Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, 56 – 29 percent. Jeb Bush gets a negative 33 – 51 percent, among the worst scores. Favorability ratings for candidates are:
Clinton: Negative 42 – 51 percent;
Trump: Negative 37 – 56 percent;
Carson: 39 – 26 percent;
Sanders: 39 – 25 percent;
Fiorina: 33 – 25 percent.

“A Trump-Clinton matchup would be a battle of two negatively viewed candidates. Clinton would come out ahead but Trump is within single digits – 7 points,” Dr. Schwartz said.

“Biden is clearly a stronger general election candidate than Clinton.  He would easily defeat Trump by double digits – 18 points. Clinton is in a close race with both Carson and Fiorina, while Biden would defeat both of them handily.” 

President Obama’s Approval

Connecticut voters give President Barack Obama a divided 48 – 49 percent approval rating, virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University surveys over the last 18 months.

Voters oppose the nuclear deal with Iran 59 – 28 percent and say 59 – 30 percent that it will make the world less safe.

From October 7 – 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,735 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 464 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 610 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.




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