Democrat Hillary Clinton opens an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, the largest of the presidential swing states, and erases a small Trump lead to create a dead heat in Ohio, while Pennsylvania remains too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a long shot for the Democratic presidential nomination, runs markedly better than Clinton in head-to-head matchups with Trump in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
The presidential matchups show:
? Florida – Clinton over Trump 47 – 39 percent, compared to 43 – 42 percent May 10.
Sanders tops Trump 45 – 39 percent.
? Ohio – Clinton and Trump tied 40 – 40 percent, compared to a small 43 – 39 percent
Trump lead May 10. Sanders leads Trump 48 – 38 percent.
? Pennsylvania – Clinton at 42 percent to Trump’s 41 percent, virtually unchanged from
the 43 – 42 percent lean to Clinton May 10. Sanders tops Trump 47 – 40 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are:
? Florida – Clinton tops Trump 42 – 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary
Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
? Ohio – Clinton at 38 percent, with Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at
? Pennsylvania – Clinton at 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson
and 4 percent for Stein.
“Secretary Hillary Clinton is pulling ahead in Florida, but the pictures in Ohio and Pennsylvania are much less clear,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
“The at-times bitter verbal battles between Trump and some Republicans leaders is showing in these numbers. In these three key states, Clinton is doing better, and in the case of Florida much better, among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. Traditionally GOP presidential candidates score better on this party loyalty test.”
By wide margins, voters in each state say Clinton is better prepared than Trump to be president; that she is more intelligent than Trump and that she has higher moral standards. Voters are divided on whether Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton and voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania find him more inspiring. Trump’s comments about a judge of Mexican descent are racist, voters in each state say by wide margins.
Trump’s support among men in Florida drops from 49 – 36 percent May 10 to 45 – 41 percent today. Clinton’s lead among women grows from 48 – 35 percent in May to 52 – 34 percent today. Republicans back Trump 82 – 8 percent, while Clinton leads 93 – 2 among Democrats and 44 – 35 percent among independent voters. White voters back Trump 51 – 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 72 – 15 percent.
Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 39 – 53 percent for her and 33 – 61 percent for him. Comparing the candidates’ character traits, voters say:
? 60 – 31 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
? 47 – 36 percent that she has higher moral standards;
? 53 – 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
? 43 percent say Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 40 percent trust Clinton;
? 44 percent that Clinton is more inspiring, with 42 percent for Trump;
? 46 percent that Trump is a stronger leader, with 45 percent for Clinton.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Florida voters say 49 – 41 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 50 – 43 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 48 – 42 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 54 – 39 percent.
Florida voters say 48 – 40 percent they would rather invite Trump to their backyard barbecue, but say 49 – 40 percent they would rather turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.
“Of the three swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes. In fact, it has the most of any of the roughly dozen states around the country considered to be in play. It is Hillary Clinton’s best state and perhaps Donald Trump’s toughest lift. One reason might be Florida has a larger Hispanic population than the other two states, and Trump has clashed with Hispanic leaders over some of his remarks,” Brown said.
Ohio women are moving to Clinton in greater numbers, from 43 – 36 percent over Trump May 10 to 48 – 31 percent today. There is little change in Trump’s support among men, 51 – 36 percent in May and 49 – 32 percent today. He leads 76 – 6 percent among Republicans and 41 – 32 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Clinton 80 – 9 percent. White voters back Trump 46 – 32 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 78 – 8 percent.
Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 35 – 59 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 32 – 59 percent.
Comparing the candidates’ character traits, voters say:
? 57 – 33 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
? 45 – 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
? 53 – 36 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
? 44 – 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
? 46 – 40 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
? 49 – 41 percent that Trump is a stronger leader.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Ohio voters say 52 – 39 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 50 – 43 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 54 – 38 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 52 – 41 percent.
Ohio voters say 50 – 36 percent they would rather invite Trump to their backyard barbecue, but say 45 – 42 percent they would rather turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.
“One reason why Trump may be doing better in Ohio, and for that matter in Pennsylvania as well, is that both states have small Hispanic populations, compared to Florida. Given Trump’s comments on immigration and descendants of immigrants, the much larger Hispanic population in Florida is obviously a boost there for Hillary Clinton,” Brown said.
The gender gap remains largely unchanged in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads 50 – 34 percent among women, while Trump leads 50 – 33 percent among men. He leads 78 – 7 percent among Republicans and 42 – 34 percent among independent voters. Clinton takes Democrats 82 – 7 percent. White voters go Republican 47 – 38 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 66 – 15 percent.
Keystone State voters give Clinton a negative 41 – 56 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 35 – 60 percent.
Comparing the candidates’ character traits, voters say:
?59 – 32 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
?47 – 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
?54 – 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
?44 – 40 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
?45 – 41 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
?47 percent that Trump is a stronger leader and 46 percent that Clinton is stronger.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Pennsylvania voters say 52 – 39 percent. Clintonwould be better on immigration, voters say 51 – 44 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 51 – 42 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 54 – 38 percent.
By 52 – 36 percent, Pennsylvania voters would rather invite Trump to their barbecue, but 45 percent would turn to Clinton in a personal crisis and 44 percent would turn to Trump.
“In the Clinton-Trump acid test, Pennsylvania voters say Hillary Clinton is smarter, more morally grounded and better equipped to handle the ‘what ifs,’ the use of nuclear weapons and the management of an international crisis,” said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Sure Trump would be more fun at a barbecue and might crush ISIS more efficiently, but given it’s a tossup on leadership, in the broad overview, Trump comes up short.”
From June 8 – 19 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
?975 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
?971 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
?950 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
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