Politics Published: Jun 17, 2015 - 8:54:17 AM


QU Poll: Clinton, Rubio close in FL, OH, PA

By Quinnipiac University





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U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida runs best against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 presidential matchups with eight top Republican contenders in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Voters in each state say by margins of 8 to 14 percentage points that the Democratic front-runner is not honest and trustworthy.

Clinton still leads or is in a too-close-to-call matchup in every race in each state, except for Ohio, where native son Gov. John Kasich leads 47 – 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

Clinton’s favorability ratings are 47 – 45 percent in Florida, negative 44 – 48 percent in Ohio and 46 – 48 percent in Pennsylvania.

She is not honest and trustworthy, Florida voters say 51 – 43 percent, Ohio voters say 53 – 40 percent and Pennsylvania voters say 54 – 40 percent.

“It’s a long way until Election Day, but in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has a tiny edge over the GOP field, “said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

“Most of the eight GOP hopefuls are within striking distance of Secretary Hillary Clinton in at least one of the three states. In Ohio, Gov. Kasich leads.”

“But perhaps more troubling for her than the continuing slide is how she is perceived by voters who continue to say she is not honest and trustworthy.”

“But potentially more disturbing for her are low marks for caring about voter needs and problems. This is where Democrats almost always fare better than Republicans. Yet in this survey many Republican candidates do as well or better than does she,” Brown added.

Florida

Florida is the bluest Swing State so far as Secretary Clinton gets 47 percent to U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s 44 percent. She gets 46 percent to former Gov. Jeb Bush’s 42 percent. In other matchups:

Clinton tops New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 46 – 35 percent;
She beats U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 46 – 39 percent;
She tops former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 49 – 38 percent;
Clinton thumps Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 48 – 38 percent;
She buries U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48 – 37 percent;
Clinton bashes Ohio Gov. John Kasich 48 – 35 percent.

Being honest and trustworthy is the most important quality in deciding their vote, 39 percent of Florida voters say, while 28 percent most want strong leadership qualities and 32 percent most want a candidate who cares about their needs and problems.

Voters say 50 – 34 percent that Rubio is honest and trustworthy; 52 – 33 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 53 – 37 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Bush scores 52 – 36 percent on being honest, 62 – 29 percent on strong leadership and 48 – 43 percent for caring for voters’ needs and problems.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 51 – 43 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 61 – 37 percent. She gets a divided 48 – 46 percent on caring for voters’ needs and problems.

Florida voters give Clinton a split 47 – 45 percent favorability, with Rubio at a 38 – 33 percent favorability rating and Bush at 42 – 40 percent. Scores for other Republicans are:

Negative 25 – 43 percent for Christie;
Negative 33 – 39 percent for Huckabee;
Negative 30 – 35 percent for Paul;
27 – 25 percent for Walker, with 47 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion;
Negative 25 – 32 percent for Cruz.

“Secretary Clinton continues to out-poll most major Republican wannabes in the Sunshine State. She holds her own when matched against the GOP’s two native sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. The margin stems from her ability to keep the gender gap running in her favor. She holds low double digit leads among women when matched against either man and that is enough to make the difference” Brown said.

Ohio

Clinton suffers her biggest setback in Ohio, trailing Gov. John Kasich 47 – 40 percent, but she has other tight races against Republican contenders:

Edging Christie 44 – 39 percent;
Splitting with Paul 43 – 43 percent;
Squeaking past Huckabee 46 – 41 percent;
Taking 42 percent to Bush’s 41 percent;
Getting 45 percent to Rubio’s 42 percent;
Holding 44 percent to Walker’s 40 percent;
Topping Cruz 47 – 39 percent.

For 38 percent of Ohio voters, honesty is the top quality in a candidate, with 27 percent looking mostly for a strong leader and 32 percent seeking someone who cares about their needs.

Voters say 61 – 28 percent that Kasich is honest; 70 – 21 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 58 – 34 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Paul is honest, voters say 45 – 31 percent and a strong leader, voters say 42 – 33 percent. He cares about their needs and problems, voters say 44 – 32 percent.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 53 – 40 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 60 – 37 percent. Voters split 48 – 48 percent on whether she cares about their needs.

Clinton gets a negative 44 – 48 percent favorability rating, with a positive 48 – 32 percent score for Kasich and a divided 35 – 33 percent score for Paul. Ratings for other Republicans are:

Negative 26 – 42 percent for Christie;
33 – 35 percent for Huckabee;
Negative 29 – 39 percent for Bush;
27 – 20 percent for Rubio;
21 – 20 percent for Walker, with 57 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion;
Negative 21 – 35 percent for Cruz.

“Gov. John Kasich’s 47 – 40 percent lead over Secretary Clinton is the largest of any GOP candidate in any of the three states. With Ohio being such a critically important state – no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying it – that gives Gov. Kasich a key talking point about why he should be the nominee,” Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Clinton finds herself in several tight races in Pennsylvania, including a matchup with Rubio, where he gets 44 percent to her 43 percent, and Paul, who gets 45 percent to her 44 percent, and even Christie, who gets 41 percent to her 43 percent.


Results of other matchups show:
Clinton beats Huckabee 46 – 39 percent;
She edges Bush 45 – 41 percent;
Clinton squeaks by Walker 46 – 41 percent;
She tops Cruz 47 – 40 percent.

Honesty is the most important quality in a presidential candidate, 40 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 28 percent most want a strong leader and 28 percent most want a candidate who cares about their needs and problems.

Rubio is honest and trustworthy, voters say 43 – 29 percent, and a strong leader, voters say 46 – 25 percent. He cares about their needs, voters say 41 – 32 percent.

Voters say 50 – 29 percent that Paul is honest; 45 – 33 percent that he is a strong leader and 48 – 34 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 54 – 40 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 57 – 41 percent. She doesn’t care about their needs and problems, voters say 51 – 45 percent.

Clinton gets a divided 46 – 48 percent favorability rating in Pennsylvania, compared to Rubio’s 33 – 20 percent. Ratings for the Republicans are:

Negative 35 – 50 percent for Christie;
33 – 34 percent for Huckabee;
Negative 30 – 42 percent for Bush;
34 – 34 percent for Paul;
32 – 18 percent for Walker, with 50 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion;
27 – 27 percent for Cruz.

“Bottom line, no one is stepping up to take a roundhouse at Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“She may look vulnerable on paper, but the GOP field is just not pressing her. Not a runaway by any measure, but imagine Clinton’s numbers if she had the full trust of Pennsylvanians.”

From June 4 – 15 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,147 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
1,191 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
970 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. 




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